Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version nam
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 32¢ means the market is pricing in a 32.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,545) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($6,341) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | 20¢ | $998,515 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | 6¢ | $996,944 |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | 1¢ | $982,653 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version nam
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-30, 56 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 32¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 68¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 32¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 32.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,545 in total traded volume and $6,341 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.