Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 7 12:00 PM ET to July 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the to
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 15¢ means the market is pricing in a 15.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,624) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($38,315) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $982,436 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 20¢ | $973,368 |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | 1¢ | $962,318 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 7 12:00 PM ET to July 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the to
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-14, 6 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 15¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 84¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 15¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 15.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,624 in total traded volume and $38,315 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.