Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 86¢ means the market is pricing in a 86.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,945) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($10,765) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | 5¢ | $976,115 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in July? | 1¢ | $97,922 |
| Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026? | 30¢ | $9,889 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-07-14. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 86¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 14¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 86¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 86.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,945 in total traded volume and $10,765 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.