Bitcoin Up or Down on September 16?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 21¢ means the market is pricing in a 21.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($96,496) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($34,774) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Similar markets on the US-regulated exchange
Kalshi lists related contracts US traders can legally access. Spread is typically similar; liquidity varies.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September? | 2¢ | $97,748 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on September 16? | 1¢ | $9,989 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on September 17? | 1¢ | $9,972 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-09-16. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 21¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1, a profit of 79¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 21¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 21.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $96,496 in total traded volume and $34,774 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.