Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 74¢ means the market is pricing in a 74.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,681) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,346) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | 97¢ | $998,140 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | 2¢ | $981,875 |
| Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? | 20¢ | $973,281 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 202
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2028-01-01, 547 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 74¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 , a profit of 26¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 74¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 74.0% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,681 in total traded volume and $11,346 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.