economy

Obama divorce before 2027?

PlatformPolymarket Expires2026-12-31 Volume$961 Open Interest$8,244
YES
10¢
Implied probability: 10.0%
NO
90¢
Implied probability: 90.0%
30-DAY PROBABILITY HISTORY Low 10¢ · High 10¢ · Δ +0.0pp
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YES Price
10¢
NO Price
90¢
Total Volume
$961
Open Interest
$8,244
Expiration
2026-12-31
Days Left
256
About this market

What resolves this contract

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media report

How to read the price

Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 10¢ means the market is pricing in a 10.0% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.

Volume vs. open interest

Total traded volume ($961) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($8,244) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.

Where to trade this market

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.

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FAQ

Common questions about this market

How is this market resolved?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media report

When does this contract expire?

This contract closes on 2026-12-31, 256 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).

What happens if I buy YES at 10¢?

If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 — a profit of 90¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 10¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 10.0% probability of YES.

Where is this market listed?

This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.

How reliable is the quoted price?

This market has $961 in total traded volume and $8,244 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.

Disclaimer: Prediction market data on this page is sourced from public order books. Prices change continuously; figures shown here reflect the last refresh at 2026-04-19. Nothing on this page constitutes investment or betting advice.