Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 7¢ means the market is pricing in a 7.1% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,881) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,023) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 16¢ | $9,556,335 |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | 6¢ | $996,147 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 9¢ | $983,857 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-04-30, 11 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 7¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 — a profit of 93¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 7¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 7.1% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,881 in total traded volume and $11,023 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.