Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
What resolves this contract
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 8¢ means the market is pricing in a 8.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,916) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($30,301) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 16¢ | $9,555,766 |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | 6¢ | $996,147 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 4¢ | $978,917 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-31, 42 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 8¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 — a profit of 92¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 8¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 8.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,916 in total traded volume and $30,301 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.