Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
What resolves this contract
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in
How to read the price
Prediction market prices are expressed in cents on the dollar. A YES contract trading at 81¢ means the market is pricing in a 81.5% implied probability of the event resolving YES. If resolution comes back YES, the contract pays $1. If NO, it pays $0.
Volume vs. open interest
Total traded volume ($9,702) reflects every buy and sell across the life of this contract. Open interest ($11,746) is the dollar value of positions currently held by traders. Deep liquidity and wide open interest are the two signals that the quoted price is reliable.
Where to trade this market
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds does not accept deposits, execute trades, or offer brokerage. We publish the data; you decide what to do with it.
Markets in the same story
| Market | YES | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 1¢ | $9,996,984 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | 82¢ | $9,939,978 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 59¢ | $9,707,478 |
Common questions about this market
How is this market resolved?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election. If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in
When does this contract expire?
This contract closes on 2026-05-07, 18 days from now. After close, the final outcome is determined per the resolution rules above, and contracts settle at $1 (winning side) or $0 (losing side).
What happens if I buy YES at 81¢?
If the event resolves YES, each YES contract pays $1 — a profit of 19¢ per dollar risked. If it resolves NO, the contract pays $0 and the full 81¢ is lost. Current market price implies a 81.5% probability of YES.
Where is this market listed?
This contract is listed on Polymarket. PicksByOdds aggregates and displays public market data; we do not broker trades or custody funds.
How reliable is the quoted price?
This market has $9,702 in total traded volume and $11,746 in open interest. Deeper liquidity generally means tighter spreads and more reliable implied probabilities. Prices refresh multiple times per day.