Today's top edges across 350 tracked Kalshi and Polymarket markets.
Where the NOAA weather model disagrees most with the Kalshi market.
| Market | YES | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be <54° on Apr 19, 2026: 53° or below weather · Kalshi | 64¢ | +50.0pp vs model |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 54-55° on Apr 19, 2026: 54° to 55° weather · Kalshi | 35¢ | +50.0pp vs model |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 56-57° on Apr 19, 2026: 56° to 57° weather · Kalshi | 7¢ | +50.0pp vs model |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be >61° on Apr 19, 2026: 62° or above weather · Kalshi | 1¢ | +50.0pp vs model |
| Will the **high temp in NYC** be 60-61° on Apr 19, 2026: 60° to 61° weather · Kalshi | 1¢ | +50.0pp vs model |
Where the real money is concentrated.
| Market | YES | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? politics · Polymarket | 1¢ | $9,996,984 vol |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? sports · Polymarket | 83¢ | $9,941,456 vol |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? sports · Polymarket | 59¢ | $9,707,487 vol |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? politics · Polymarket | 1¢ | $9,593,331 vol |
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? sports · Polymarket | 6¢ | $996,147 vol |
Low-probability events with meaningful liquidity.
| Market | YES | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? sports · Polymarket | 6¢ | 6.9% implied |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? sports · Polymarket | 2¢ | 2.9% implied |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? economy · Polymarket | 9¢ | 9.5% implied |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? crypto · Polymarket | 2¢ | 2.9% implied |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? economy · Polymarket | 3¢ | 3.9% implied |